Tools / GBM equity curve simulator / Scenario
Back to tool
Scenario guide / GBM equity curve simulator
Market-neutral grind with lower volatility
A slower, lower-volatility path that shows how smoother compounding changes the distribution of drawdowns and terminal outcomes.
Median terminal
1.59x
10th percentile
1.13x
90th percentile
2.14x
Loss probability
4%
Median max drawdown
16%
Tail max drawdown
24%
Why this scenario matters
This scenario makes it easier to see what traders are buying when they say they want smoother paths rather than the highest raw return number.
- Lower volatility changes the journey as much as the destination.
- Drawdown control can matter more than a few extra points of annual return.
- Even tame paths still have a non-trivial range of outcomes.