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Scenario guide / GBM equity curve simulator

Market-neutral grind with lower volatility

A slower, lower-volatility path that shows how smoother compounding changes the distribution of drawdowns and terminal outcomes.

Median terminal

1.59x

10th percentile

1.13x

90th percentile

2.14x

Loss probability

4%

Median max drawdown

16%

Tail max drawdown

24%

Why this scenario matters

This scenario makes it easier to see what traders are buying when they say they want smoother paths rather than the highest raw return number.

  • Lower volatility changes the journey as much as the destination.
  • Drawdown control can matter more than a few extra points of annual return.
  • Even tame paths still have a non-trivial range of outcomes.