Long-only equities over 10 years

A moderate-return, moderate-volatility path that helps people see why a calm-looking median still hides a wide terminal range.

Median terminal

2.60x

10th percentile

1.25x

90th percentile

5.10x

Loss probability

Median max drawdown

34%

Tail max drawdown

49%

Why this scenario matters

This is the scenario most people think they understand. It is useful precisely because the dispersion is less obvious than in crypto, which makes the path-risk lesson easier to miss.

A reasonable median path can still come with a large drawdown envelope.
Ten years does not eliminate path risk when volatility compounds over many steps.
The lower tail matters even when the expected return feels comfortable.